MCD #1551

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1551

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1019 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 201519Z - 201645Z THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW ISSUANCE. RECENT TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE RECENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER CUMBERLAND...HOKE AND ROBESON COUNTIES IN NC...ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THICKER CLOUD COVER OVER THE WRN AND CNTRL PART OF THE STATE. THE STRONGEST AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING E OF THESE CLOUDS...ALONG AND E OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM NEAR ECG SWWD TO APPROXIMATELY 40W OF ILM WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 80S. MODIFICATION OF 12Z MHX SOUNDING FOR THE CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS YIELDS A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. LOCAL VWPS INDICATE MODEST /20-25 KT/ WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST SOME THREAT OF COLD POOL ORGANIZATION WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS