Southern Weather Brigade Hurricane Dean Contest

Contest is open to everyone! Please post your answers!

Since many of us are spending so much time watching (Hurricane) Dean and the computer models anyway, we thought it would be fun to have a little friendly competition. Please submit your prediction no later than Noon Eastern time Friday August 17, 2007. Post a comment with your answer to the following three questions.

1. Name the location that Hurricane Dean will make landfall in the U.S. Name a specific point (i.e., city, small island, etc.) For purposes of this contest we are assuming he will make landfall in the U.S. Do not say that he won’t (even though that is a real possibility).

2. Name the maximum sustained winds (in mph) that the National hurricane center reports upon Hurricane Dean’s landfall.

3. Name the minimum central pressure (in millibars) that the NHC reports upon Hurricane Dean’s landfall.

Looking ahead to Dean

I have no doubt in my mind that as I write this Dean is becoming a tropical depression. Within days we will have a major hurricane traversing the Atlantic on its way toward the Caribbean.

Where will it end up? No one knows, but now the GFS is placing it on the northern Mexican coast late next week. It looks like the GFS keeps our heat bubble ridge in place and shunts the storm to the west.

It is way too early to tell but there is no doubt that we will have lots to watch and talk about over the next two weeks!

Major Hurricane in the Gulf?

I've been telling everyone to watch the tropics closely for action during the next two weeks.

Check out this model output animation!

Tropical Disturbance Statement

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
MIAMI FL1150 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2007

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA…SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS ARE ASSOCIATEDWITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTHEASTOF COZUMEL MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FORTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO…THE LOW IS EXPECTEDTO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WHEREENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY FAVOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ASA NON-TROPICAL LOW. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT…THIS SYSTEM SHOULDBRING HEAVY RAINS ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA OVER THENEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCALWEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEASFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE… UNDER AWIPSHEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
$$FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BLAKE/BROWN

Action to come in the tropics?

From James Spann's afternoon discussion today on Alabamawx.com:

Interesting to note the 12Z GFS also develops some kind of tropical system around May 31 over the far Southeast Gulf of Mexico; it then moves across South Florida and northeast into the Atlantic. Then, on June 3, it develops a whopper of an eastern U.S. upper trough which sweeps much cooler air down into Alabama. But, all of this is pure voodoo at this stage of the game. Just interesting to watch.

The models have been hinting at this consistently in runs all week long. Lets keep our eyes open for this!