Tuesday, August 14, 2007

Southern Weather Brigade Hurricane Dean Contest

Contest is open to everyone! Please post your answers!

Since many of us are spending so much time watching (Hurricane) Dean and the computer models anyway, we thought it would be fun to have a little friendly competition. Please submit your prediction no later than Noon Eastern time Friday August 17, 2007. Post a comment with your answer to the following three questions.

1. Name the location that Hurricane Dean will make landfall in the U.S. Name a specific point (i.e., city, small island, etc.) For purposes of this contest we are assuming he will make landfall in the U.S. Do not say that he won’t (even though that is a real possibility).

2. Name the maximum sustained winds (in mph) that the National hurricane center reports upon Hurricane Dean’s landfall.

3. Name the minimum central pressure (in millibars) that the NHC reports upon Hurricane Dean’s landfall.

16 comments:

Jay Reid said...

SC, Hilton Head Island

113mph

992mb

Pure guessing, as claim not to know nothing about nothing, including hurricanes!!!

Jay

Rick said...

Using my "Super Rick" powers i would guess the following..
Panacea Fl.
130 mph winds
991mb

Dewdrop said...

I am still getting the strong feeling that it will be a Gulf Coast Event. Early indications, which are a far cry from anything realistic in the long run...

I say:
* Port St. Joe, FL...
* 140mph after a rebirth in the Gulf...
* 930mb of pressure

It's so early, I am prepared to be way off, but it's fun to guess. I guess we need something similar for TD5... the soon to be TS Erin.

Hey Jay, where you been hiding?

Jay Reid said...

unda da sea

Rick said...

930mb??!! Sheesh woman!!

Dewdrop said...

Jay... lol... "unda da sea"? You nut. Hope things are going well for you.

Rick, Rita had readings around 930 just preceeding her landfall with windspeeds ranging from 125 to 175 along the way (granted at 175, she dropped down to 897mb), but I think that given my windspeed estimate, 930mb is reasonable.

Rick said...

Again i say.."Sheesh Woman! ;-)
Looking at the 5 day track and yes i know it changes drasticaly as time passes, I dont think it will even threaten or come near us.

Dewdrop said...

Every run seems to have changed its course drastically. I don't feel like it will impact us either, though.

Mike said...

Why do y'all think I gave a Friday deadline!?. These models are impossible to trust for exact locations, especially when we are talking landfall over a week away. Models have alternated between southern Mexico and Maine during the last few days!

I think I'll wait till 11:59. Revisions to your forecast ARE allowed until that time!

Dewdrop said...

Aww, Mike, youj're so kind. Consider a revision forthcoming... ;-)

Rick said...

I will make my revision one hour before landfall..does that count??

Michael said...

Rockport, TX
125 mph
951 mbar

Dewdrop said...

Rick, That is definitely cheating!

Mike, Hey!

My guess with come after the 11:00 update... I have some gut feelings.

Dewdrop said...

Are y'all ready for this... my revised forecast

* Port Arthur, TX
* 155mph winds
* 910mb

Gosh... that's scary to write...

Storm Chasing Mikey said...

Johnson's Bayou, LA (Rita Landfall Location)
145mph winds
928mb

SCM

Mike said...

This is a pretty tough call this far in advance. I am going to say that this high pressure ridge in the Deep South has been particularly strong and persistent. Because of that I do not think Dean can turn too far north into the Gulf. On the other hand, models do seem to be pushing the storm gradually farther north with every run.

There is no doubt that Dean will become a major hurricane as he travels over the very warm waters of the Caribbean. A big factor for his future strength will be how much time Dean spends traveling over the Yucatan Peninsula. That will depend on his forward speed and how far north he goes. He has been moving at a fairly rapid clip and he may just brush the northern tip of the Yucatan.

I am going to say that he will barely clip the northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, lose a little punch, then emerge into the northern Bay of Campeche / southern Gulf of Mexico area and strengthen.

A few days later he will:

1. Make landfall on or near South Padre Island, Texas
2. Maximum sustained winds will be 135 mph
3. Minimum central pressure will be 925 mb.

Just a semi-educated guess!