Wednesday, October 17, 2007

Parts of Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kansas, and Missouri under the gun


...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY...

--A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH A THREAT OF STRONG...LONG-TRACKED TORNADOES

THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY WHILE MOVING / DEVELOPING NEWD TOWARD THE LOWER MO VALLEY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES.

MORE SIGNIFICANT... SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED IN WAKE OF EARLIER STORM ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW OVER SWRN KS SWD/SEWD ALONG DRY LINE INTO WRN/CNTRL OK AND FAR N-CNTRL TX. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MODERATE TO STRONG LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST A HIGH LIKLIHOOD OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG AND LONG-TRACKED. THIS
IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE FROM SERN KS AND ERN OK INTO AR AND SRN MO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WHERE DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN ADVANCE OF PRIMARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

ELSEWHERE...TSTMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS TODAY OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE MID SOUTH WITHIN A VERY MOIST AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS RETURNING NWD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES /SOME STRONG

SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH A THREAT OF TORNADOES... LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL.



Update by Dew 10/17/07 at 3:30: Just to offer some reference as to what Alabama Mike is talking about... NW Louisiana... right now... looks pretty intense. Let's all drool together. I'd like to add a laptop and GPS to that list, Mike. ;-)

4 comments:

Dewdrop said...

I just spoke with David Drummond, who is in Oklahoma, preparing to set up on the dry line there this morning. He was preparing to walk out the door when I chatted with him. He is concerned that storm speed will make it a very dangerous chase day, not a good day for the inexperienced chaser. I pray that all the chasers out there will be extra-cautious. Live to chase another day! Have fun though... again... so stinkin' jealous.

Rick said...

Road trip anyone??

Dewdrop said...

Sounds fabulous. Be patient. We will get ours.

Mike said...

I wish I was in the Northern Louisiana right now, that I had a $600 camera, etc. You know the drill!