This just in...

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0424 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND OZARKS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG...LONG-TRACK TORNADOES FROM EASTERN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS TODAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA

SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTH INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS

A POWERFUL JET STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW IN NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY EARLY THURSDAY AS ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST IOWA.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN MARKEDLY...DRAWING A BROAD PLUME OF WARM AND VERY HUMID AIR NORTH ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE PLAINS...THE OZARKS AND THE LOW TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

THE COMBINATION OF VERY STRONG WINDS AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...INCREASING MOISTURE...AND ASCENT ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS KNOWN AS SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THE BROAD AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SUCH
DEVELOPMENT...A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE LONG-LIVED AND PRODUCE STRONG TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

WHILE THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXIST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...A THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND HAIL WILL ALSO EXIST FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. THIS THREAT LIKELY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS THE SURFACE LOW AND JET STREAM WINDS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN.

THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES... WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..STEPHEN CORFIDI/STORM PREDICTION CENTER.. 10/17/2007